Analysis of the Expansion of Emobility and Charging Infrastructure in the European Union
According to data from the Hungarian Central Statistical Office (KSH), in 2020, Hungary had nearly 4 million passenger cars. Of these, 27,000 were green-plated vehicles, including fully electric (BEV) and plug-in hybrid (PHEV) cars. This represented an over 60% increase from the previous year, with the trend continuing into 2021 at a slightly slower rate of 50%. Despite this strong growth, by the end of last year, electric cars still made up just 1% of the total passenger car fleet.
Meanwhile, across the European Union’s 256 million-vehicle fleet, 3.8 million were electric in 2020, accounting for 1.5%. Compared to 2019, the number of electric vehicles in the EU doubled by 2020, with an additional 86% increase by 2021, according to the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association.
When looking at newly sold cars, we can see that in the EU27 countries, almost one in five cars sold last year was either fully electric or plug-in hybrid. In contrast, in Hungary, around one in ten new cars was eligible for green plates.
How many charging points are needed for emobility?
To support the growth of emobility, the International Energy Agency (IEA) recommends that ideally, every 10 electric cars should have at least one charging point in addition to home charging. This means one public charging point for every 10 electric vehicles. We’ll evaluate Hungary’s and the EU’s charging infrastructure based on this guideline.
By the end of 2021, Hungary had 1,880 publicly accessible charging stations. These charging stations often have multiple sockets, so our estimates suggest that 3,300 charging points were available for electric vehicle drivers in Hungary.
In the European Union, there are 372,000 charging points. Based on our assumptions, the coverage in the EU suggests that one charging point serves 10 electric cars, while in Hungary, one charging point serves 12 cars. This indicates that the current number of charging points in the region is almost adequate to support the growing emobility demand.
To keep pace with the continuous growth in electric vehicle sales, the charging network will need to grow at a similar rate. It is expected that by 2030, the average annual growth rate for electric vehicles will be around 30%, and a similar rate is expected for charging points until 2030. In Hungary, the spread of emobility is likely to follow the EU trend, but charging point expansion may lag slightly behind the EU average. This highlights the need for focused infrastructure development.
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Is real emobility growing?
Currently, the number of fully electric cars and plug-in hybrids in Hungary and the EU is almost equal. However, global market trends indicate a significant shift towards BEV (battery electric vehicles). This is supported by the changing ratio between the two types of electric vehicles over the past two years, where the share of plug-in hybrids has slowly but steadily decreased.
With this in mind, it might be worth considering whether, when calculating cars per charging point, we should focus solely on fully electric vehicles. BEVs are more reliant on public charging, especially when their batteries are running low (e.g., “range anxiety” and “charging anxiety”). Given the growing share of fully electric cars in the market, the ratio of 10 cars per charging point may no longer be sufficient, as more vehicles will require frequent charging to support emobility growth.
Is emobility really the future?
Despite the rapid growth in electric vehicle numbers, the proportion of electric cars in Hungary and the EU remains small. However, there is great potential in the emobility market, along with the development of electric charging infrastructure that supports the spread of electric cars.
According to Zsolt Somogyi, CEO of Parkl, emobility has “limitless potential” – it’s an extremely dynamic and under-saturated market. There may be doubts, as critics of electric cars argue that they won’t be the mobility solution of the future.
Zsolt refutes this, stating: “The automotive industry has a deep supply chain, so if we are heading in this direction now, it is likely we will continue for the next 50 years.”
The “deep chain” refers to the industry’s supply chain, which is robust and multi-layered. The world’s leading car manufacturers are gradually shifting from producing traditional vehicles to electric ones, making it unlikely that this trend will change abruptly.
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In conclusion, the potential for emobility in Hungary and the EU is vast. Despite current numbers being low, the electric vehicle market is expected to grow exponentially, and infrastructure development will be key to supporting this transition to a more sustainable future.
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